Правый поворот

Книжка Predisposed: Liberals, Conservatives, and the Biology of Political Differences (2013) рассказывает о результатах исследований в области биологической политологии - изучении, с какими чертами характера, коррелируют правые и левые политические пристрастия.

Известно, например, что правые (консервативные) взгляды коррелируют с таким качеством, как брезгливость - причем с большой точностью это можно предсказать по реакции мозга на одну картинку.

Disgusting images, especially those related to animal-reminder disgust (e.g., mutilated body), generate neural responses that are highly predictive of political orientation even though these neural predictors do not agree with participants’ conscious rating of the stimuli. Images from other affective categories do not support such predictions. Remarkably, brain responses to a single disgusting stimulus were sufficient to make accurate predictions about an individual subject’s political ideology.

Исследования на близнецах показывают, что генетика определяет подобные склонности на 30-40%.

VEDANTAM: There's a really interesting way to separate the effects of biology from the environment. Think about fraternal and identical twins. Identical twins have identical genes. Fraternal twins have similar but not identical genes. If you follow a group of fraternal and identical twins, each twin pair is raised in the same household. Each pair eats the same food, listens to the same conversations, watches the same movies. Now, if you find differences between identical twins as a group and fraternal twins as a group, that suggests that biology, not environment, is the driver. I asked John what such studies reveal about political preferences.
HIBBING: We were fortunate to have access to a data set. It's very large - includes thousands and thousands of twin pairs, collected by a guy named Lindon Eaves long ago. It's a fairly dated data set, but it was a valuable one for us because it included lots of information about their political views. And when we subjected these data to the standard twin design approach, we did indeed find that the political views were quite heritable. Although, people oftentimes misread this, our results suggested that maybe 30 or 40 percent of our political views come from genetics. But, you know, that bothered a lot of people, and this was quite a controversial study in political science. Many people didn't like that at all, and they tended to over-interpret those results and make it sound like we were saying that everything was genetic. But, you know, if it's 30 to 40 percent genetic, that obviously leaves, you know, 50, 60, 70 percent that comes from the environment. So all we're saying is that that genetic component is not zero, but apparently that was enough that some people were upset about that.


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В 1983-1985 американская студента Лиза Пол, изучающая Россию, получила возможность увидеть страну вблизи, устроившись няней в американскую семью в Москве. Для того, чтобы подучить русский язык, она нашла репетитора. Ее учительницей русского стала Инна Китросская-Мейман, автор университетских учебников английского и жена диссидента-отказника Наума Неймана. На молодую студентку знакомство с миром советских диссидентов произвело большое впечатление. Дополнительно она узнала, что ее учительница болеет раком шеи и медленно умирает, потому что ее не выпускают из страны для лечения за границей.

Вернувшись в США, Лиза решила помочь своей учительнице и попытаться обратить внимание на ее судьбу. В декабре 2015 она объявила голодовку протеста и голодала 25 дней. Об этом написали в местной газете, затем сведения распространились дальше и закончились пресс-конференцией в Вашингтоне. В октябре 1986 обе палаты Конгресса приняли единогласную резолюцию:

"Expresses the sense of the Congress that the Soviet Union should abide by its international commitments under specified international human rights agreements and: (1) immediately approve the exit visa applications of Doctor Naum Meiman and his wife, Inna Kitrosskaya-Meiman; (2) resolve the outstanding divided spouses and separated family cases between the United States and the Soviet Union; and (3) guarantee to all Soviet citizens the right to emigrate to the country of their choice."

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Рождение заговора

Новое любительское расследование подтверждает подозрения о том, что хакерский взлом ученых-климатологов, из которого правой пропагандой был раздут псевдоскандал Climategate, пришел из России. Следы ведут на Урал.

Crucially, when Unix Time file names are decoded there is a mismatch — the system clock of the computer used to handle the hacked files was five hours ahead of the UK. This places the computer in a time zone that spans countries including Pakistan and Uzbekistan, and a strip of Russia that includes the city of Ekaterinburg. Other evidence uncovered as part of this investigation hones in on the capital of Russia’s Ural region.
The stolen emails were released to the public in 2009 and 2011, each timed around a major climate summit. Both times, the “Climategate” hackers uploaded their findings to what were ostensibly public file sharing services that could have been used by anyone. In reality, they were obscure Russian websites with public file sharing functions.
The registration records of the website used to release the second batch of emails in 2011 server was originally registered to an employee of the Ural region Federal University in Ekaterinburg.
The website’s registration record was made anonymous shortly before it was used to upload the stolen emails, but it has been possible to unearth the original domain details. These include phone and email details matching an individual who has a longstanding affiliation the Institute of Radioelectonics and Information Technology at Ural Federal University.
An internal document discovered on the Ural Federal University network confirms this connection and reveals that another individual — an academic with expertise on CO2 emissions — was issued with an email address at this suspect website.


Вброс другой теории заговора - про Сета Рича - как показывает расследование Майкла Исакоффа, был спецоперацией СВР.

Russia’s foreign intelligence service, known as the SVR, first circulated a phony “bulletin” — disguised to read as a real intelligence report —about the alleged murder of the former DNC staffer on July 13, 2016, according to the U.S. federal prosecutor who was in charge of the Rich case. That was just three days after Rich, 27, was killed in what police believed was a botched robbery while walking home to his group house in the Bloomingdale neighborhood of Washington, D.C., about 30 blocks north of the Capitol.
The purported details in the SVR account seemed improbable on their face: that Rich, a data director in the DNC’s voter protection division, was on his way to alert the FBI to corrupt dealings by Clinton when he was slain in the early hours of a Sunday morning by the former secretary of state’s hit squad.
Yet in a graphic example of how fake news infects the internet, those precise details popped up the same day on an obscure website, whatdoesitmean.com, that is a frequent vehicle for Russian propaganda. The website’s article, which attributed its claims to “Russian intelligence,” was the first known instance of Rich’s murder being publicly linked to a political conspiracy.


История была закинута на Fox News 16 мая 2017, в координации с Белым домом, и реверберировала там еще долго. Это было накануне назначения Мюллера, в трудный момент времени для Трампа.

A senior official in the Trump administration, who previously worked on the president’s campaign, offered a candid and brief assessment of the fallout from that string of bad press: “I don’t see how Trump isn’t completely fucked.”

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Бог в помощь

Небольшой эпизод из избирательной кампании 2016.

11 октября 2016 Викиликс вывалили очередную порцию емайлов из взломанной почты Джона Подесты. Среди них был емайл 2011 года, в котором Дженифер Палмиери (Director of Communicationsв в кампании Хиллари Клинтон) обменивалась мнением с Джоном Халпиным, другим демократом и католиком, в то время когда они вместе с Подестой работали в Center for American Progress.

Халпин обсуждал статью про Руперта Мердока, в которой рассказывалось, как Мердок выращивает детей в католической вере: "Ken Auletta's latest piece on Murdoch in the New Yorker starts off with the aside that both Murdoch and Robert Thompson, managing editor of the WSJ, are raising their kids Catholic. Friggin' Murdoch baptized his kids in Jordan where John the Baptist baptized Jesus." На что Палмиери заметила: "I imagine they think it is the most socially acceptable politically conservative religion. Their rich friends wouldn't understand if they became evangelicals."

Первым этот емайл высветил по свежим следам канал RT https://www.rt.com/usa/362358-wikileaks-third-podesta-emails/

На трампинге во Флориде Трамп и его спичрайтеры воспользовались шпаргалкой. В своей речи в этот день Трамп упомянул Викиликс 13 раз. Австралиец Руперт Мердок, обладатель состояния в $20 миллиардов, превратился у него в "everyday Americans".

"The Hillary Clinton documents released today by WikiLeaks make more clear than ever just how much is at stake in this election, so much corruption. This election will determine whether we remain a free country in the truest sense of the word or we become a corrupt banana republic controlled by large donors and foreign governments. <...> Тhese WikiLeaks e-mails confirm what those of us here today have known all along. Hillary Clinton is the vessel, a corrupt global establishment that's raiding our country and surrendering the sovereignty of our nation. <...> WikiLeaks has given us a window into the secret corridors of government power where we see a former secretary of state announcing her desire to end forever the American independence that our Founders gave to us and wanted us to have. <...> Not only have the Clintons ripped off Haiti, but the new e-mails show members of the Clinton team attacking Catholics. While this is offensive, it's just the latest evidence of the hatred that the Clinton campaign has really for everyday Americans. And you see it and you see so much from these WikiLeaks. You see so much, there's so much."

Карл Роув, руководитель избирательной кампании Буша, пришел на Fox News. Он говорил о важности голосов католических избирателей (четверти электората) и что кампании Трампа необходимо воспользоваться моментом, чтобы изобразить Клинтон врагом католиков и всех верующих вообще.

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Демократы пользуется Днем Независимости, чтобы напомнить избирателям об отчете Мюллера и необходимости защиты от иностранного вмешательства.

Конгрессмен Джастин Амаш из Мичигана - единственный из республиканцев, который, внимательно прочитав отчет Мюллера, призвал к процедуре импичмента, в День Независимости вышел из партии. В своем заявлении Амаш цитирует Джорджа Вашингтона:

“The disorders and miseries which result gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of public liberty. <…> It serves always to distract the public councils and enfeeble the public administration. It agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms, kindles the animosity of one part against another, foments occasionally riot and insurrection. It opens the door to foreign influence and corruption, which finds a facilitated access to the government itself through the channels of party passions. Thus the policy and the will of one country are subjected to the policy and will of another.”

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Чего хочет Россия

Группа экспертов подготовила по заказу Пентагона (Объединённого комитета начальников штабов) "белую книгу" на тему "Russian Strategic Intentions".

Основной вывод: оставаясь в рамках "второй этической системы" и играя в игру с нулевой суммой, Путин стремится не просто утвердить себя в качестве мирового "игрока", но и нанести максимальный урон США.

There is broad consensus among the contributors that Russian President Vladimir Putin is indeed adhering to a global grand strategy, which aims to achieve the following goals:
• Reclaim and secure Russia’s influence over former Soviet nations
• Regain worldwide recognition as a “great power”
• Portray itself as a reliable actor, a key regional powerbroker, and a successful mediator in order to gain economic, military, and political influence over nations worldwide and to refine the liberalist rules and norms that currently govern the world order.
According to Dr. Robert Person, these goals are motivated by Russia’s deep-seated geopolitical insecurity. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has struggled to find its place in the global community, which has left the leadership with a lingering desire to regain the influence and power that it once had. In particular, Russia seeks to regain its influence over former Soviet states, which it claims are in its rightful “sphere of influence”. As a result, one of the United States’ core goals, namely promoting and protecting the international liberal order, comes into contention with the goals of Russia’s grand strategy. This underpins the Kremlin’s belief that it must contain and constrain US influence and activities in Europe and elsewhere across the globe. As Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya’s contribution suggests, the Russian leadership’s worldview is zero-sum; it believes that in order for Russia to win, the US must lose.

Анна Борщевская своими словами: "Putin’s worldview is zero-sum, so it’s hard to imagine a win-win scenario. For Putin to win—to look “great,” the US has to lose. Due to our fundamentally opposing values and worldviews, we are likely to have a hard time coming up with genuinely shared goals that both sides can truly work on together."

Другой эксперт, Джереми Ламоро (Lamoreaux), призывает противостоять путинской кампании влияния в Европе путем поддержки политического либерализма: "Economic and political liberalism both create strong states capable of providing the institutions necessary for societal liberalism. Societal liberalism, when it is upheld by the rule of law, helps create a more diverse, yet united, populace more committed to the state, to its basic institutions, and less likely to be influenced by outside sources (in this case, Russia)."

Роберт Персон пишет о том, что центральной темой путинской глобальной стратегии является ватная мечта о разделе сфер влияния (Ялте-2.0): "This paper argues that a deep-seated sense of geopolitical insecurity motivates Russia to pursue strategic objectives to establish an uncontested sphere of influence within the post-Soviet region, secure for Russia a seat at the table of other great powers in critical regions outside its sphere, and contain and constrain America’s unilateral and multilateral pursuit of its own interests globally. Since 2007, it has developed a sophisticated set of gray zone tactics of “asymmetric balancing” through which Russia pursues its strategic ends within relatively limited means."

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Экскурс в историю

4 ноября 1956 года советские войска вторглись в Венгрию и за несколько дней потопили в крови венгерское восстание. За успешную операцию маршал Жуков получил четвертую звезду Героя Советского Союза, а председатель КГБ Серов был награждён орденом Кутузова I степени. Отличился и советский посол в Венгрии Юрий Андропов, который после этого пошел на повышение и стал заведующим Отдела ЦК КПСС по связям с компартиями соцстран.

Редакционная статья New York Times писала "We accuse the Soviet Government of murder. We accuse it of the foulest treachery and the basest deceit known to man. We accuse it of having committed so monstrous crime against the Hungarian people yesterday that its infamy can never be forgiven or forgotten."

В те же дни Дуайт Эйзенхауэр был переизбран на пост президента США, а окрыленный Никита Хрущев, выступая перед западными послами, озвучил свою знаменитую угрозу «Нравится вам или нет, но история на нашей стороне. Мы вас похороним.»

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Убийство либерализма

Накануне встречи в Японии Путин разродился интервью про то, что "либеральная идея себя изжила" и таким образом настала радостная эпоха фашизма.

"Потом есть современная так называемая либеральная идея, она, по‑моему, себя просто изжила окончательно. По некоторым её элементам – наши западные партнёры признались, что некоторые её элементы просто нереалистичны: мультикультурализм там и так далее. Вот когда началась проблема с миграцией, многие признали, что да, это, к сожалению, не работает, и надо бы вспомнить об интересах коренного населения."

На G-20 для иллюстрации этого интервью появились наглядные картинки.

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Костер и дрова

Вчера в Нью-Йорке великолепные актеры читали со сцены отчет Мюллера. Получилось выразительно.

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Защита от вмешательства

Интересные слушания в Конгрессе на тему Undermining Democracy: Kremlin Tools of Malign Political Influence: https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/2019/5/undermining-democracy-kremlin-tools

Докладывали представители различных аналитических центрoв (think tanks).

Сильный доклад Лоры Розенбергер, директора Alliance for Securing Democracy:

Vladimir Putin’s Russia uses a suite of low-cost, asymmetric tools to undermine democratic institutions as a means of weakening Europe, the United States, and transatlantic ties. This threat poses a unique national security challenge, as the attacks exploit democracies’ openness while weaponizing societal and institutional vulnerabilities. Putin and his proxies wage these operations using five primary, non-military tools – information operations, cyberattacks, malign financial influence, political and social subversion, and state economic coercion. These activities support Putin’s goals of discrediting democracy as a form of government, destabilizing and weakening Russia’s competitors, and gaining relative power on the world stage. <...>
To date, Putin’s Russia has faced little real consequence for its nefarious activities, and the damage is compounding. The need for action could not be more urgent. And as the United States has learned all too clearly, Russia’s use of these tools to undermine democracy are not confined to Europe’s borders, and have been used to attack the United States as well. There are a series of steps that the United States and our allies can take that would both make our systems more resistant to these tactics and strengthen our democracies, and make it more difficult for Putin and his cronies to enrich themselves at our expense. The bipartisan initiative I co-direct developed a comprehensive strategy to counter authoritarian interference in democracies, endorsed by a bipartisan and transatlantic group of former senior national security officials.


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