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Цель

Через несколько дней Дональд Трамп примет присягу, чтобы занять пост 45-го президента США.

Существуют обвинения Трампа в том, что он "кремлевская марионетка".

Был ли Трамп в свое время напрямую завербован российскими спецслужбами? Цель этого сообщества - попытаться совместными усилиями собрать информацию из открытых источников с тем, чтобы пролить свет на этот вопрос.

Сложность задачи не только в недостатке информации и в трудности отделения правдивой информации от намеренной дезинформации. Различные политические и идеологические силы заинтересованы в президентстве Трампа или в его отстранении от власти независимо от его отношений с нынешним руководством России. Трудность отделения политических и идеологических соображений от фактической связи между Трампом и Кремлем осложняет задачу.

Зачем это нужно?

1. Развлекательное упражнение на поиск истины методом "Шерлока Холмса".

2. Адекватное знание может помочь предугадать развитие политических событий в США, России и остальном мире и приготовиться к тому, что нас ждет.

TRUMP: Look, Putin from everything I see, has no respect for this person.

CLINTON: Well, that's because he'd rather have a puppet as president of the United States.

TRUMP: No puppet. No puppet.
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Never Bernie



Берни Сандерс вышел в лидеры демократических праймериз. Сайт fivethirtyeight оценивает его шансы на номинацию в 40%, но они могут вырасти еще больше после голосования в следующих штатах, где он ныне лидирует по опросам https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

В качестве эха 2016 кандидатура Сандерса активно раздувается невнятными троллями в социальных сетях.

Между тем из прошлого Сандерса всплывает не только восхищение московском метро, но и более проблематичные взгляды.

The documents from the Sanders archives include a letter from Soviet Embassy First Secretary Vadim Kuznetsov in March 1983, congratulating Sanders on his reelection as mayor and thanking Sanders for receiving him in Sanders’s office. Kuznetsov had been in Burlington to attend a conference on nuclear disarmament at the University of Vermont a few days earlier. Neither Sanders nor conference organizers appear to have read a 1976 Time magazine article that identified Kuznetsov as a member of a “Soviet intelligence squad” posing as diplomats to infiltrate U.S. politics.
In 1988, Sanders traveled to the Soviet Union on his honeymoon and forged a “sister city” cooperation program there. Many believe he gave a rosy depiction of conditions there just a few years before the communist system collapsed.
Another potential area of vulnerability concerns Sanders’s relationship with socialist governments in Latin America. In 1985, Sanders, as mayor of Burlington, traveled to Nicaragua to meet with then-President Daniel Ortega, the leader of the Sandinista movement, which was aligned with the Soviet-backed Cuban regime of Fidel Castro. The Sandinista government was accused of widespread human rights abuses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/03/bernie-sanderss-foreign-policy-is-risk-democrats-against-trump/



Поддержку Фиделя Кастро и Даниэля Ортеги, как и московские люстры, можно списать на наивный идеализм. Можно найти и оправдание тому, почему Сандерс голосовал против антипутинских санкций, от Акта Магнитского в 2012 (в числе четырех сенаторов) до CAATSA в 2017 (в числе двух сенаторов, на пару с Рэндом Полом). Но есть и эпизоды, которым оправдание придумать еще сложнее.

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Рубеж



Пока в Сенате завершается процесс импичмента, сохраним для истории заключительное слово Адама Шиффа.

"Russia, too, has a constitution. It's not a bad constitution. It’s just a meaningless one. In Russia, they have trial by telephone. They have the same ostensible rights we do to a trial. They hear evidence and witnesses. But before the verdict is rendered, the judge picks up the telephone and calls the right person to find out how it’s supposed to turnout. Trial by telephone.
Is that what we have here, trial by telephone? Someone on the other end of the phone, dictating what this trial should look like?
The founders gave us more than words. They gave us inspiration. They may have receded into mythology, but they inspire us still. And more than us, they inspire the rest of the world. They inspire the rest of the world: From their prison cells in Turkey, journalists look to us. From their internment camps in China, they look to us. From their cells in Egypt,those who gathered in Tahrir Square for a better life look to us. From the Philippines,those that were the victims, and their families, of mass extrajudicial killing,they look to us. From Evin prison, they look to us. From all over the world,they look to us.
And increasingly they don’t recognize what they see.
It's a terrible tragedy for them; it is a worst tragedy for us.
Because there's nowhere else for them to turn. They’re not going to turn to Russia. They’re not going to turn to China. They’re not going to turn to Europe, with all of its problems.
They look to us, because we are still the indispensable nation.
They look to us, because we have a rule of law.
They look to us, because no one is above that law.
And one of the things that separates us from those people in Evin prison, is the right to a trial. It’s the right to atrial. Americans get a fair trial.
And so I ask you, I implore you, give America a fair trial.
Give America a fair trial.
She is worth it.
Thank you."



По теме этого сообщества Шифф тоже высказался, вспоминая печально известную встречу в Хельсинки.

"I'm sure you remember this. It was I think unforgettable for every American. But I'm sure it was equally unforgettable for Vladimir Putin. I mean, there he is, the President of Russia, standing next to the President of the United States, and hearing his own Kremlin propaganda talking points coming from the President of the United States.
Now, if that's not a propaganda coup I don't know what is. It's the most extraordinary thing. It's the most extraordinary thing. The president of the United States standing next to the president of Russia, our adversary, saying he doesn't believe his own intelligence agencies. He doesn't believe them. He's promoting this crazy server theory cooked up by the Kremlin. Right next to the guy that cooked it up. It's a breathtaking success of Russian intelligence. I don't know if there's ever been a greater success of Russian intelligence.
Whatever profile Russia did of our president, boy, did they have him spot on. Flattery and propaganda. Flattery and propaganda is all Russia needed. And as to Ukraine, well, they needed to deliver a political investigation to get help from the United States. I mean, this is just the most incredible propaganda coup.
Because as I said yesterday, it's not just that the President of the United States standing next to Vladimir Putin is reading Kremlin talking points. He won't read his own national security staff talking points but he will read the Kremlin ones. But it's not just that he adopts the Kremlin talking points. That would be bad enough. It is not bad enough, not damaging enough, not dangerous enough to our national security that he's undermining our own intelligence agencies. It's not bad enough that he undermines those very agencies that he needs later that we need later to have credibility.
We've just had a vigorous debate over these -- the strikes against General Soleimani and the president made his argument of what the intelligence says and supports. How do you make those arguments? When you say the U.S. Intelligence community can't be believed.
Now, we have had a vigorous debate about what that intelligence has to say. That's not the issue here. The issue here is that you undermine the credibility of our own intelligence agencies. You weaken the country! For when you need to rely on them. For when you need to persuade your friends and allies. You can trust us when we tell you this is what the intelligence shows.
How do you make that argument as the President of the United States when you just told the world you trust the Russians more than your own people? You trust Rudy Giuliani more than Christopher Wray. How do you make that case? If you can't make that case what does that mean to our security? But that's not the end of it. It's not just a propaganda coup. It is not just the undermining of our agencies.
It is also that the buy-in to that propaganda meant that Ukraine wasn't going to get money to fight the Russians. I mean, that's one hell of a Russian intelligence coup. They got the President of the United States to provide cover for their own interference with our election. They got the President of the United states to discredit their own intelligence agencies, to drive a wedge between the United States and Ukraine, the President of the United States to withhold aid from Ukraine in a war with Russia, in a war claiming Ukrainian lives every week.
Has there ever been such a coup? I would submit to you in the entire length of the Cold War the Soviet Union had no such success, no such success and why? Because a former mayor of New York persuaded a president of the United States to sacrifice all of that. Was it worth it? I hope it was worth it. I hope it was worth it. For the president. Because it certainly wasn't worth it for the United States."

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Привал прохиндеев



В баре вашингтонского отеля Трампа рюмочка "Столичной" стоит $18, а бутылка шампанского Krug - $2650. Можно также выпить "ложечку вина" за $140.

The bar at the new Trump International Hotel in Washington, Benjamin’s Bar and Lounge, is a sprawling space with high ceilings, few customers, and too-sweet cocktails that go for $20 to $100, the most expensive being the bar’s namesake, a concoction of rye, potato, and winter-wheat vodka, shaken and served with raw oysters and caviar. There is also, inexplicably, a section of the menu called BY THE CRYSTAL SPOON that offers literal spoonfuls of wine for anywhere from $15 to $140.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-trumps-runner-up-white-house-a-glitzy-empty-hotel-on-pennsylvania-ave



Среди завсегдатаев бара - республиканский прохиндей из Коннектикута Роб Хайд. Непонятно, откуда у Хайда деньги на бухло и на крупные пожертвования политикам, если у него не хватает денег на алименты бывшей жене и сыну.

The court case between Morin and Hyde has been going on for years, she said. “We’re going back and forth and he’s stating he’s unemployed and can’t afford child support,” she said.
Hyde has had sporadic contact with his son, and “there have been years during which there was no contact at all,” according to an April 2018 ruling issued by Judge Kari A. Dooley.
Morin, who drives a school bus for a living and earns less than $400 per week, sought additional child support and the court agreed, ordering Hyde to pay $300 per week as of Jan. 1, 2018. Hyde was also ordered to pay $4,000 in Morin’s attorney fees. The court rejected Hyde’s request for custody, granting him visitation rights only at the discretion of Morin.
In the court filings, Hyde said he could not afford to pay the court-ordered $300 a week in child support.

https://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-robert-hyde-child-support-20191219-3dc5k5xuwvhnvodkshu4t273zm-story.html

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Важнейшее из искусств



Занимательный документальный сериал Андрея Лошака "Холивар"рассказывает про историю российского Интернета (Рунета). За четверть века много всего произошло - от ранних любительских сайтов, через успешные компании вроде Яндекса, сложные взаимоотношение с властями и т.д. В последней на сегодня серии рассказывается про увлечение YouTube, с его свободой создания видео-контента и новыми звездами. Возникает даже некоторый оптимизм про новое поколение.



Одна из загадочных историй успеха YouTube - зарегистрированная на Кипре компания The Soul Publishing, созданная предпринимателями из Казани Павлом Радаевым и Маратом Мухаметовым.

Канал 5-Minute Crafts появился на YouTube 15 ноября 2016 года, на следующий день на нем был размещен первый видеоролик, специализация канала — необычные советы (как из вилок сделать вешалку, прищепкой зачистить провода, резинкой выкрутить шуруп, ниткой разрезать торт и т. п.). За три года канал набрал 15 млрд просмотров и 60 млн подписчиков и занял 3-е место по числу подписчиков всего YouTube. В 2017–2018 годах у 5-Minute Crafts появилось еще 10 каналов-«родственников»: 5-Minute для детей, 5-Minute для семьи, 5-Minute для девушек и пр.
Таким образом за пару лет два приятеля из Казани Павел Радаев и Марат Мухаметов соорудили в интернете «вечный двигатель», приносящий им десятки миллионов долларов в год. Общее число подписчиков на их контент в Facebook — 230 млн, на YouTube — более 300 млн человек. На этих платформах ежемесячно размещается 1500 роликов более чем на 17 языках. Радаев и Мухаметов живут и работают на Кипре, с прессой не общаются.

https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/384229-stanok-pechatayushchiy-dengi-v-youtube-kak-dva-priyatelya-iz-kazani-sozdali

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Моральное неравенство



В выступление Эми Клобушар на вчерашних дебатах прозвучало важное слово "патриотизм".

KLOBUCHAR: I think when you see what's going on around the country, yes, it's the economic check that Elizabeth and Bernie have so well pointed out on this stage, but there's something else going on here, and it is a decency check. It is a values check. It is a patriotism check.
When you see people -- and we've all had this happen -- that come to our meetings and say, you know, yeah, I voted for Donald Trump, but I don't want to do it again, because I want my kids to be able to watch the president on TV and not mute the TV.
We have to remember as Democrats, and if I get worked up about this, it's because I believe it so much in my heart, that we have to bring people with us and not shut them out. That is the gift we can give America in this election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/20/transcript-december-democratic-debate/



На предыдущих дебатах Клобушар упомянула вопрос моральной эквивалентности.

YANG: We have to let Russia know, look, we get it. We've tampered with other elections, you've tampered with our elections. And now it has to stop. And if it does not stop, we will take this as an act of hostility against the American people. I believe most Americans would support me on this. <...>
KLOBUCHAR: I want to respond to Mr. Yang. I don't see a moral equivalency between our country and Russia. Vladimir Putin is someone who has shot down planes over Ukraine, who has poisoned his opponent, and we have not talked about what we need to do to protect ourselves from Russia invading our election.
This wasn't meddling. That's what I do when I call my daughter on a Saturday night and ask her what she's doing. Sorry.
This was much more serious than that. This was actually invading our election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/15/october-democratic-debate-transcript/

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Веха истории



Первый раз про возможность импичмента я писал в феврале 2017. Ныне мечта Максин Уотерс сбылась.

"History will remember those who were willing to speak truth to power. Yes, I called for Trump’s impeachment early. This is our country. Our foremothers and our forefathers shed their blood to build and defend this democracy. I refuse to have it undermined. I wholeheartedly support this resolution. I'm proud that in the final analysis justice will have been served in America and Donald Trump will have been impeached."
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/he-has-shown-us-who-he-is-maxine-waters-flattens-trump-and-gop-defenders-to-applause-from-the-house-floor/



Воспользуемся моментом, чтобы проведать персонажей ранних сообщений из января-февраля 2017.

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Прохиндеи и мозгоебы



Мир трампизма обладает способностью привлекать разного рода проходимцев. Характерный пример - молодая девушка по имени Christianné Allen, которая внезапно оказалась пресс-секретарем у Руди Джулиани. Про ее похождения - длинное расследование в Politico.

For the past three months, Trumpworld has been both abuzz and baffled by Christianné Allen, a little-known Instagram personality who became Rudy Giuliani’s director of communications in September. She accompanies him wherever he goes, recently appearing by his side in Ukraine, where he’s working on a documentary defending himself against accusations that he ran a malicious campaign to get a U.S. ambassador fired. She’s his media strategist, technology consultant and the employee who helps field reporters’ daily onslaught of inquiries — or, at least, tries to do so. <...>
Allen’s Twitter bio, LinkedIn, and old personal website list an array of suitable credentials: representative of the Trump Victory Finance Committee, the official joint fundraising committee for the re-election campaign; and video columnist for the Daily Caller. Spokeswoman for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. Executive director of the Middle Eastern Women’s Coalition.
According to representatives of these entities, these titles are embroidered at best, and completely untrue at the most. She is, however, an “ambassador” for both Turning Point USA and Liberty University’s Falkirk Center, titles she gained this year. And there’s no question she enjoys Giuliani’s confidence.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/10/christianne-allen-giuliani-079762



Интересно упоминание в качестве "крестной матери" Аллен прохиндейки постарше британского происхождения, Элис Батлер-Шорт из организации Virginia Women for Trump.

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Про Россию



Бывший неокон, а ныне "born again human" Макс Бут не жалеет своих бывших товарищей по партии, клеймя их за пресмыкательство перед Путиным в угоду Трампу.

Of all the changes that have occurred in our politics since the rise of Donald Trump, the most gut-wrenching for me personally is to see the Republican Party transformed into the Kremlin’s “useful idiots.” As a young refugee from the Soviet Union growing up in Southern California in the 1980s, I was attracted to the GOP because it was the party of moral clarity — the party willing to stand up to the “evil empire.” How far we have come — in the wrong direction.
Today, we have a Republican president who, while reluctantly acceding to sanctions against Russia, incessantly praises its dictator, Vladimir Putin (“a terrific person”); tries to bring Putin back to the Group of Seven; conceals the details of their meetings; undermines Ukraine, a victim of Russian aggression, by harping on its corruption while ignoring Russia’s own kleptocracy; allows the Russians to take possession of U.S. bases in Syria; and propagates Russian propaganda blaming Ukraine for 2016 election interference. <...>
The percentage of Republicans who view Russia as an ally has nearly doubled since Trump took office. The party’s transformation into a Russian lickspittle makes me sick; “GOP” might as well stand for “Gang of Putin.”
That so many Republicans are just fine with it is yet another sign of how a once-grand party has lost its way. By turning into apologists and advocates for a Russian dictator, the Republican Party has become all that it once despised.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/04/republicans-have-become-party-russia-this-makes-me-sick/



Для тревоги есть основания. Последний опрос фонда Рейгана показал, что, наслушавшись главнокомандующего, почти половина американских военных и членов их семей считают путинскую Россию союзником США.
https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/355292/reagan-foundation-survey-charts-112519.pdf

The second annual Reagan National Defense Survey, completed in late October, found nearly half of armed services households questioned, 46%, said they viewed Russia as ally.
Overall, the survey found 28% of Americans identified Russia as an ally, up from 19% the previous year.
Generally, the pollsters found the positive views of Russia seemed to be “predominantly driven by Republicans who have responded to positive cues from [U.S.] President [Donald] Trump about Russia,” according to an executive summary accompanying the results.

https://www.voanews.com/usa/pentagon-concerned-russia-cultivating-sympathy-among-us-troops

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Не про Украину



Историческое заявление Нэнси Пелоси об импичменте:

Let us begin where our Founders began in 1776: ‘When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another…’
With those words, our Founders courageously began our Declaration of Independence from an oppressive monarch, for, among other grievances, the King’s refusal to follow rightfully-passed laws.
In the course of today’s events, it becomes necessary for us to address, among other grievances, the President’s failure to faithfully execute the law.
When crafting the Constitution, the Founders feared the return of a monarchy in America. And, having just fought a war of independence, they specifically feared the prospect of a king president corrupted by foreign influence.
During the Constitutional Convention, James Madison – the architect of the Constitution – warned that a President might ‘betray his trust to foreign powers… which might prove fatal to the republic.’
Another Founder, Gouverneur Morris, feared that a president ‘may be bribed by a greater interest to betray his trust.’ He emphasized that, ‘This Magistrate is not the King…The people are the King.’
They therefore created a constitutional remedy to protect against a dangerous or corrupt leader: impeachment. <...>
Sadly, but with confidence and humility, with allegiance to our Founders and our hearts full of love for America, today, I am asking our Chairmen to proceed with articles of impeachment.
I commend our Committee Chairs and our Members for their somber approach to actions which I wish the President had not made necessary.
In signing the Declaration of Independence, our Founders invoked a firm reliance on divine providence.
Democrats too are prayerful.
And we will proceed in a manner worthy of our oath of office to support and defend the Constitution of the United States from all enemies foreign and domestic, so help us God.

https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/12519-0



Про то, что "All roads lead to Putin" на слушаниях в Конгрессе намекала также Памела Карлан, профессор из Стэнфорда и один из лучших в стране специалистов по конституционному праву.

What happened in 2016 was bad enough: there is widespread agreement that Russian operatives intervened to manipulate our political process. But that distortion is magnified if a sitting President abuses the powers of his office actually to invite foreign intervention. <...>
I believe the evidentiary record shows wrongful acts on that scale here. It shows a president who delayed meeting a foreign leader and providing assistance that Congress and his own advisors agreed served our national interest in promoting democracy and limiting Russian aggression. And it shows a president who did this to strong arm a foreign leader into smearing one of the president’s opponents in our ongoing election season. That is not politics as usual—at least not in the United States or any other mature democracy. It is, instead, a cardinal reason why the Constitution contains an impeachment power. Put simply, a candidate for president should resist foreign interference in our elections, not demand it.
If we are to keep faith with the Constitution and our Republic, President Trump must be held to account.

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU00/20191204/110281/HHRG-116-JU00-Wstate-KarlanP-20191204.pdf

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